The 2024 United States Presidential Election will be held on Nov. 5, 2024. However, the process of choosing presidential candidates has already begun.
For the Democratic Party, incumbent President Joe Biden of the Democrat Party had already announced his re-election bid on April 25. Meanwhile, for the Republican Party, the nomination is sought by several candidates consisting of both old and new faces.
Though projections and approval ratings are constantly changing, one question remains: will this election simply be a repeat of the last one in 2020?
The outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election granted Joe Biden the presidency against then-incumbent Donald Trump. Although Biden won with 74 electoral votes more than Trump, he earned merely 51.3% of the popular vote, edging Trump’s 46.9%. Biden’s early approval and disapproval ratings at that time were 53% and 36%, respectively.
Joe Biden beats incumbent President Donald Trump 306-232. Photo Courtesy of the New York
Times.
Since 2020, however, Biden’s response to political events has elicited changes in his approval rating in several ways: some positive, such as the handling of the Russian-Ukraine War and announcement of student loan debt forgiveness, and some negative, such as the emergence of the delta-variant of the coronavirus, removal of U.S troops from Afghanistan and surge in inflation and gas prices. According to FiveThirtyEight, these negative events have decreased his current approval and disapproval ratings of 42.5% and 52.8%, respectively. Despite this negative trend, it is likely, in light of the small number of challengers and his current polling within the party, that President Biden will win the Democratic Party nomination.
The currently favored Republican candidate is former President Donald Trump, with the latest Sept. 5 poll showing 52% of republicans or republican-leaning independents supporting him. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, this marks Trump up 30% higher than the other GOP candidates. Due to his recent criminal allegations, many were unsure if Trump would continue his campaign.
However, despite being indicted four times, the Constitution allows Trump to run for re-election. In fact, after the release of his mugshot from his Georgia booking, Trump raised $7.1 million from supporters.
According to a poll by CNN that asked Republication-aligned voters to name their biggest concerns for Trump as a candidate, voters did not mainly name Trump’s legal issues: only 6% mentioned his indictments and 3% worried that he could be convicted or imprisoned. 18% had no concerns about Trump’s candidacy.
Other Republicans, such as Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley want the nomination instead.
DeSantis, formerly a house representative and currently the governor of Florida, saw his support decrease from 37% in Jan. 2023, which was very close to the 43% of Trump, to 16% as of Sept. 8. Non-partisan pollsters and Republican political operatives speculated that DeSantis doubling down on a conservative agenda may have alienated his moderate supporters.
Ramaswamy, a businessman and lawyer, is known for his list of “10 Truths” that outline his highly controversial views on politics and society, such as “there are two genders” and “God is real;” despite these controversial claims, according to FiveThirtyEight, Ramaswamy currently has support from almost 8% of republicans, his all-time high.
Haley, former governor of South Carolina and U.N Ambassador, has had stagnant support since the beginning of this year at around 4%. It seems as if her candidacy outcome will not be different than when she ran and lost in 2016.
This presidential election will significantly affect the individuals in our school, especially through its voting process.
“The role of the president is to make the correct decision, even when it can be hard. If I was voting, I would look for someone that will consistently make decisions that I agree with that will move our country into a better position,” said Jacob Julin ’25 when asked about how he would determine his vote for the upcoming election.
“I don’t think Trump’s chances are as high as they were in previous elections, especially if he might go to prison. The news circulating around Trump may contribute to some of his reputations,” said Katherine Song ’25 when asked to evaluate Trump’s position in the election from the political knowledge of a high school student.
“Paying attention to current elections helps you learn about what you value and how elections function. People who are not of voting age can still register and encourage other people to vote, including their parents and older siblings. I still think that this young generation has many ways of having a voice and also preparing to be voters,” said Dr. Julie Kimmel, Chair of the Upper School History Department, when discussing how this election will affect high school students.
Though candidacy support can vary greatly over time, based on current approval ratings and support, the 2024 Presidential Election may very well be a repeat of the 2020 election, with Democrat Joe Biden running against Republican Donald Trump.
As was with the 2020 election, America’s sharp division of Democrats and Republicans makes the final outcome of this election currently unknown; every political action and statement will matter in shaping the outcome of this upcoming presidential election.
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