From June to September of 2022, unusually heavy rains fell over Pakistan, causing the country to receive 90% higher monsoon rainfall than normal. Southern parts of the country were hit the hardest, receiving up to eight times more rain than usual. As a result, 75,000 square kilometers of land were submerged; this marks the largest flood in Pakistan since record-keeping began in 1961.
Around a million homes were flooded, more than 1500 flood-related deaths have occurred, and over 500,000 individuals are living in temporary shelters. The rains also heavily impacted farmland and livestock, washing away 3 million acres of agricultural land (10% of agricultural land in Pakistan), and drowning 927,000 livestock.
Nearly all of the country’s rice and cotton crops were damaged, both of which are the country’s largest exports. In total, the floods impacted more than 33 million people and led to a loss of 30 billion dollars, 11% of the country’s GDP.
Although the heavy rains ended in Pakistan, the stagnant floodwaters significantly increase the risk of water-borne diseases like diarrhea, cholera, dengue and malaria. The spread of these diseases is increased by a lack of sanitation within camps, as hundreds of thousands of people whose homes were destroyed must live in unhygienic makeshift shelters.
During an average year, summer monsoons in Pakistan are mostly limited to the northern areas because moisture from the Bay of Bengal travels along the foothills of the Himalayas. However, this summer, the seasonal low-pressure system that formed over the Indian subcontinent was larger than usual, stretching into western Pakistan and parts of Iran. Additionally, the monsoonal trough–an elongated area of low pressure where winds converge and storms form–was positioned farther south this year, drawing moisture from the Arabian sea and bringing heavy rains into southern Pakistan.
These abnormal conditions are partially caused by a persistent global weather phenomenon called La Niña, where warm ocean water from the Eastern Pacific is pushed westward. This increases sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific, enhancing rainfall across South and Southeast Asia. While most La Niña events only last nine to twelve months, the current La Niña has been present for the last three years, with 2022 being the most intense year of the three. During the catastrophic 2010 Pakistan floods that killed over 2000, La Niña was also present.
Additionally, climate change is another influential factor in this year’s powerful monsoon season in Pakistan. According to research by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), climate change brings more extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles such as La Niña and El Niño. Since monsoons depend heavily on this cycle, monsoons have become more erratic and variable as the planet warms.
Climate change has also increased sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, leading to more evaporation and greater moisture over the ocean. When this extra moisture was drawn into the Pakistan climate by the abnormal monsoon system this year, torrential rains struck the country.
Flooding was not the only climate change-driven extreme weather event in Pakistan this year. From March 2022 to April 2022, temperatures in Pakistan and northwestern India climbed to over 110 degrees Fahrenheit for extended periods of time, with the Pakistani city of Nawabshah reaching 121.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
Both countries experienced their hottest March in recorded history during this heat wave. According to scientists, the probability of such a heat wave has increased thirty-fold due to climate change. Besides bringing deadly heat to hundreds of millions, this heat wave also enhanced the summer floods by increasing glacial melt and expanding the area of low pressure.
Pakistan’s climate minister Sherry Rehman explains the economic impacts of these extreme weather events, stating that “Heat waves and unpredictable rains have steadily become a part of citizens’ lives and when they adapt their working hours around them, critical time is lost in trying to navigate roads and manage electricity and water shortages.”
Despite only contributing to less than one percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is ranked among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its wide variety of ecosystems and reliance on the monsoon season. In the North, the 7200 glaciers that feed the Indus River are becoming more prone to melting due to rising global temperatures.
Further south, the densely populated and low-lying Indus River valley is a prime target for both floods and heat waves. Since around 70% of rainfall in Pakistan comes during a short three-month period, variations in the annual monsoon have significant effects on the country’s water and food supply. During both flood and drought years, Pakistan’s agricultural output, which amounts to ¼ of its GDP, is reduced, adding extra stress to the country’s already struggling economy.
Unfortunately, more extreme weather events are to be expected, and poorer nations like Pakistan that contribute least to global warming are hit the hardest by climate-induced catastrophes. “Climate stress”, as Rehman calls it, limits the economic growth of poorer countries and increases the gap between them and the wealthy nations that have the resources to deal with climate crises. Much of the warming that led to these climate disasters resulted from emissions generated by a colonial past, with the EU responsible for 22% of historical emissions. By keeping formerly exploited countries like Pakistan in poverty, climate change continues the inequalities that resulted from a colonial legacy.
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